Application of Soft-computing for Time Series Water-Level Prediction in Jamuna River

Authors

  • Subodh Chandra Sarkar World University of Bangladesh
  • Abul Bashar World University of Bangladesh
  • Mohammad Sultan Mahmud Shenzhen University
  • Risul Islam Rasel Chittagong Independent University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6977/IJoSI.202112_6(6).0003

Abstract

Time series analysis is one of the essential and complicated research. It is a well-known fact that improving time series prediction accuracy is a vital yet often challenging issue. Recently, soft-computing has become popular in time series forecasting in various application areas. Soft-computing is a fusion of research of evo-lutionary algorithms and genetic programming, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, and fuzzy systems, and provides rapid dissemination of results. This study investigates a model for time series water-level prediction using soft-computing techniques. The aim of this study to develop and implement a model that is more relia-ble and effective. In study twelve (12) years of data of the Jamuna river were collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). Besides,to evaluate the proposed model applied to the four areas (sta-tions): Aricha, Bahdurabad, Shariacandi, and Sirajganj of Jamuna river. In experiments, past 2 to 4 days’ time series data with rainfall and without rainfall has been applied to predict 1 to 4 days ahead water-level. The experimental results demonstrated that ANFIS performs superiorly to traditional methods, such as NARX and FTDNN.

Downloads

Published

2021-12-11

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 6 (2021): International Journal of Systematic Innovation

Section

Regular full papers

License

Copyright in a work is a bundle of rights. IJoSI's, copyright covers what may be done with the work in terms of making copies, making derivative works, abstracting parts of it for citation or quotation elsewhere and so on. IJoSI requires authors to sign over rights when their article is ready for publication so that the publisher from then on owns the work. Until that point, all rights belong to the creator(s) of the work. The format of IJoSI copy right form can be found at the IJoSI web site.
The issues of International Journal of Systematic Innovation (IJoSI) are published in electronic format and in print. Our website, journal papers, and manuscripts etc. are stored on one server. Readers can have free online access to our journal papers. Authors transfer copyright to the publisher as part of a journal publishing agreement, but have the right to:
1.    Share their article for personal use, internal institutional use and scholarly sharing purposes, with a DOI link to the version of record on our server.
2.    Retain patent, trademark and other intellectual property rights (including research data).
3.    Proper attribution and credit for the published work.